Told You So...

Instant analysis. This is a textbook example of why not to look at these month to month headline numbers. A minus-4 to a plus 89? You don't want to know what that difference is on a percentage basis (In fact, it can't be calculated). The trend over 2007 of about 100k job gains per month is probably weak enough to give the Fed cover to cut 25 bps on Halloween, especially with the dollar moving higher. On the other hand, they might go back to worrying about inflation and take a wait and see attitude. I'm inclined to think the former, as the Fed doesn't want to appear as being too indecisive, given their last statement, lurching from number to number. Have a good weekend.