Friday, December 7, 2007

Trust Your Government Redux

I think the best thing I can say about this plan to freeze rates for some mortgages is that, for the time being, Congress isn't sticking its head in this mess. It seems to be a huge leap, and a blind one at that, to thing that this will stabilize home prices. It remains to be seen whether this helps anyone. Many of these loans were on houses where the buyer's equity investment was zero to start. Freezing the rates on loans on properties where there is a negative equity situation may keep the payments manageable, but why as a borrower would you want to do so? The best thing would be A) restructure and refinance the loans to reflect reality and B) streamline the foreclosure process to allow property values to adjust to the appropriate (read: lower) level more quickly to the country and markets can move beyond this crisis. I understand the political expediencies behind this move, but, in the long term, the borrowers won't be helped. Using history as a guide, these homeowners will be stuck in their houses for an extended period, waiting for the time when their home equity will turn positive. Look at the late Eighties. If you bought a house in 1986, you would have had to wait until at least 1996, on a nationwide average, to get back to the 1986 (absolute, not inflation adjusted) level. People at the margin, the sub prime borrower in trouble, are just locking themselves into a situation they probably shouldn't have bought into in the first place. The Band-Aid approach is better. It hurts a lot to rip it off, but it's over with quickly.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I published similar thoughts in my daily piece at the firm for which I work. Make no mistake, this is not a bail out of troubled borrowers, but of the banks.

Many borrowers will not be materially helped for the reasons (being undwater on homes etc.) you mentioned. At best, if the borrower wants to stay in the home, it is merely a stay of execution and not a reprieve.

The banks needed this as the alternative would be massive foreclosures and the banks would be turned into large real estate compnies. Why else would they and the Treasury illegally change the contract between the true creditors (MBS owners) and borrowers without the MBS owners' consent?

I know of at least one large bank who is telling some borrowers to sell their home for whatever they can get and send them teh proceeds and that will be that. The WSJ reported this about three weeks ago. I personally know someone in the middle of all this at a bank. In fact, he is running the effort to work out deals with troubled homeowners.

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